Sunday, August 7, 2011

Here comes the share market pain - Live updates

Live updates below. All times are AEST. 8.09am In an op-ed piece in the Guardian, political editor and author Mehdi Hasan asks if the downgrading of the US credit rating really is all that bad. Hasan looks at the influence of the "big three" credit ratings including the head of sovereign credit ratings for Standards & Poor, David Beers. He writes: Three questions come to mind. First, who elected David Beers or his Moody's and Fitch counterparts? By what right do they decide on the fate of governments, economies, debts and peoples? Second, why should we care what Beers thinks? What credibility do he and his ilk have? Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar. Related Coverage China: Good days are gone End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar. [...] Third, would a downgrade in the US's credit rating really be that apocalyptic? Or could the world's biggest economy survive such a blow? Read the rest of 'The US should let its credit rating be downgraded – and shrug' here. 7.49am The European Central Bank says it will "actively" renew eurozone bond purchase after Italy and Spain have announced new measures and reforms to boost their economies. In an emergency conference call between ECB governors a short time ago, the ECB stressed the "decisivine importance" of the declared intention of governments "to fully honour their own individual sovereign signature as a key element in ensuring financial stability in the euro area as a whole". In other words, the governments have pledged to honour their debts and not consider defaulting. 7.41am China's official Xinhua news agency has scolded the US, saying it is time for them to take responsibility. "Disappointingly, instead of reflecting on themselves and sitting down to fix problems in a cooperated way, the Democrats and Republicans ... are questioning the creditability of the downgrade ruling and blaming each other for the ever-first shame of slipping out top-credit rating club," it said. China - which sat on the world's biggest foreign exchange reserves of around $US3.20 trillion ($3.07 trillion) as of the end of June - is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. The Chinese government has not yet made a public statement on the crisis. 7.36am The Australian dollar is lower this morning, as ratings agency Standard & Poor's warns of a one in three chance of another credit downgrade for the US. At 6.22am (AEST) the Aussie was around 104.20 US cents, down from 104.42 on Friday. AUSTRALIAN stocks are tipped to tumble further today with global markets gripped by fears of a second recession in the US and Europe. The historic downgrade of the US credit rating has set the scene for another horror day on the local bourse after almost $60 billion was wiped off the market on Friday in the biggest rout since the global financial crisis in 2008. Treasurer Wayne Swan yesterday moved to reassure jittery investors that Australia was still a safe haven, citing a "glowing" new report from the International Monetary Fund. But hopes of a rebound from last week's dive were all but dashed as stocks fell across the Middle East last night - the first hours of international trading following the US ratings cut. "We've never gone through something like this before - everyone will be looking over their shoulders," Commsec chief economist Craig James said yesterday. But Mr Swan said Australia's fiscal situation "couldn't be more different from the US". The IMF report found Australia's economy had a "positive" outlook, mostly because of the mining boom and a strong demand for commodities. It commended the Government for remaining committed to a return to budget surplus despite the financial hit of the summer of natural disasters. "This consolidation is faster than in many other advanced economies and is more ambitious than earlier envisaged," the IMF report said. But Mr Swan said he did not want to "sugar-coat" the uncertainty of the global economy. "We should be under no illusions about the magnitude of the challenges faced by the world's biggest economy," he said. "Australia is not immune from developments in the rest of the world but we should never forget our economic credentials are among the strongest in the world." The IMF report warned there was some risk that if global recovery or Asian growth stalled, the demand for Australian resources could be impacted. RBS Australian Economics said yesterday Australia was in little danger of losing its AAA credit rating - now one of only 14 major countries with the top rating from agency Standard & Poor's. The downgraded US credit rating could see the US pay higher interest rates on borrowings. Analysts have noted, though, that Standard & Poor's is just one of three ratings agencies, with the other two signalling they wouldn't change their AAA position. Commsec economist Craig James said the credit rating downgrade was "more symbolic than anything else", but said it would create uncertainty. "If you're just heading into retirement you should be talking to a financial investor - for any investor, you shouldn't have all your eggs in one basket," he said. Mr James said it would hopefully serve as a "wake-up call" for politicians in Europe and the US to "get their house in order". AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver said some stocks were trading at exceptionally cheap levels, which could lure bargain hunters. RBS Economics said the Reserve Bank was unlikely to raise interest rates during the extreme global uncertainty. The IMF report also commended the Government's carbon tax plan and called on the states to move away from inefficient taxes, like stamp duty.