Saturday, November 7, 2009

Dollar higher at noon

THE dollar was slightly higher at noon after currency traders latched on to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upgraded economic growth forecast as a pointer to rising interest rates in December. At 12.00pm AEDT, the dollar was trading at $US0.9113/16, up from yesterday's close of $US0.9072/75.

During the domestic session, the unit traded between $US0.9128 and $US0.9092.

ICAP economist Adam Carr said currency traders took the RBA upgraded growth forecasts as a sign that there might be a 25 basis point interest rate rise, to 3.75 per cent, in December.

"That's not unexpected given the bank revised their growth (upwards)," Mr Carr said.

"Just before the statement, futures spiked higher. They're interpreting it as more dovish. The whole bills curve spiked quite high.

"Currencies are telling you it's more hawkish."

The RBA on today ramped up its prediction for economic growth out to the end of 2010 and signalled more interest rate increases on the way after two rises in the past five weeks.

The central bank's quarterly statement on monetary policy forecast gross domestic product to expand by 1.75 per cent in year average terms by the end of calendar 2009, compared to its previous forecast in August for growth of 0.5 per cent.

Growth then will rise to 2.25 per cent over the year to the end of June 2010, and to 3.25 per cent by the end of next year.

Optimistic about Australia's recovery path, the bank said growth in business investment and exports was expected to be strong, underpinned by ongoing expansion in the resources sector and a bounce-back in Asian economies, particularly China.

Inflation is likely to moderate over the year ahead as the lagged effects of the recent economic slowdown and the appreciation of the Australian dollar exchange rate, which has made imported goods cheaper, works through the economy.

Mr Carr described the statement as dovish, however.

"I don't think you can read this statement and say there is a greater chance of a December hike," he said.

"If anything, they're really trying to soften expectations on rate hikes."

Meanwhile, the debt futures market has backed down from its forecast of a rate rise in December, and has fully priced in the current overnight cash rate of 3.50 per cent from the RBA board's final meeting of the year.

Mr Carr said investors would take their lead from US non-farm payrolls data for October, due to be released during the offshore session tonight.

The median market forecast is for the key US unemployment indicator to have risen to 9.9 per cent in the month, from 9.8 per cent in September.



Dollar 1.5 cents higher at noonGas prices will continue to rise before leveling off