Thursday, March 31, 2011

Dollar sets another record against greenback

THE dollar was at a new post-float record at midday, driven by encouraging retail data as well as the improved global market sentiment.

At midday (AEDT) today, the local unit was trading at a new post-float record high of US103.47c, up from yesterday's local close of US103.28c.

Since 7am, the currency traded between US103.11c and US103.47c.

During the local session, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released retail trade and building approvals figures for February.

Retail spending increased 0.5 per cent, higher than the market forecast a 0.3 per cent rise.

In contrast, building approvals were disappointing, with a fall of 7.4 per cent, when the market was expecting a 4.0 per cent rise in the month.

CMC Markets foreign exchange dealer Tim Waterer said the currency moved higher after the data.

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"It hit another fresh high. We seem to be saying that pretty much every day," he said.

"Of the sets of numbers that were released at 11.30am, the ones that the markets put the most stock in was the better than expected retail sales number.

"I think traders are putting that number down to being flood-related, so it may not be a true reading.

"So we saw a bit of a mixed reaction - one good number, one not so good number - and on closer inspection the retail sales number was more accurate as to the state of play."

Mr Waterer said the dollar could meet some resistance at US103.85c.

"It looks like there could be some sell orders up there that it may need to get through, but it's certainly on the cards that it could be reached in the coming week."

He said the main drivers for the dollar would be how the disaster aftermath in Japan and the civil war in Libya affected market sentiment.

"The longer that stays off the front pages of the newspapers, then the better trade sentiment will be and feed though to a stonger result in terms of risk assets and a stronger Australian dollar," he said.

The major piece of economic data this week is US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for March, to be released tomorrow.

Mr Waterer said he expected the dollar to break the US103.5c mark this afternoon and stay above US103c this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the bond market was stronger at midday.

At midday on the ASX 24, the June 10-year bond futures contract price was at 94.480 (implying a yield of 5.520 per cent), up from 94.455 (5.545 per cent) yesterday.

The June three-year bond futures contract was trading at 94.920 (5.080 per cent), up from 94.890 (5.110 per cent) previously.