Thursday, January 1, 2009

Dollar holds firm despite grim US data

THE dollar has opened flat in quiet end-of-year trading, despite further weak US economic data on home prices and consumer confidence overnight.

At 07.00am (AEDT), the dollar was trading at $US0.6908/11, down marginally from Tuesday's close of $US0.6914/18.

During the overnight session, the local unit moved between a low of $US0.6851 and a high of $US0.6940.

Currency strategist from US bank Wells Fargo Vassili Serebriakov said weak housing and consumer confidence data had little impact on currency markets in quiet conditions.

"Liquidity conditions are really thin. It's really a holiday market,'' Mr Serebriakov said from New York.

In the US, The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell sharply in December, dropping 6.7 index points to 38 points as a rising unemployment rate, falling stock markets and a weak housing market continued to batter consumer sentiment.

A reading below 50 indicates pessimism outweighs optimism.

House prices continued to decline across the US, according to the Standard and Poor's/Case Shiller index, which showed house prices across 20 US cities fell 18 per cent in the year to October. 

It was the largest drop since the survey began in 2000.

"The currency market will have to wait until next week to really see a reaction to the latest data and events,'' Mr Serebriakov said.

"The overall tendency for a softer US dollar, especially given today's weak numbers ... I think that's likely to persist next week.''

Oil prices were lower during offshore trading - crude oil for February delivery slipped back below $US40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, having been above $US42 in response to the escalation of Middle East tensions.

Mr Serebriakov described the move as a "knee-jerk'' reaction which was quickly reversed.

"Those types of events can have a short term impact but I doubt that they will change the trends in either currencies or commodities in the medium term,'' he said.

Mr Serebriakov said he expected the Australian dollar to trade quietly on the last local trading day of 2008.

"There will be very little reason for the markets to move one way or the other,'' he said.




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